
Bulls Gaining Momentum As Uncertain Weekend Looms
The gold market is sharply higher in early action Friday as the war in Europe intensifies. The markets have also seen the latest non-farm payrolls data today, which showed a strong gain of some 678,000 jobs while estimates were looking for a rise of 440,000. Markets showed little to no reaction from the jobs data, however, as the war in Ukraine remains the focal point for investor attention. Gold appears to be benefitting from the increasing demand for safety, as stock indexes are sharply lower today.
There will likely be little to no appetite to go into this weekend short risk. Yesterday, Russian troops overtook Europe’s largest nuclear power plant. Reports earlier in the day Thursday said the plant was on fire and presented a significant risk. A fire that was reportedly in a training center has now been extinguished, and the facility is supposedly safe. The reckless fighting around the nuclear power plant earlier, however, seemingly suggests that Russian troops do not care or understand the potential risks involved. Ukraine is already home to the worst nuclear disaster in history, the Chernobyl power plant, and yesterday’s events risked a much larger catastrophe.
The fighting around the power plant yesterday may be indicative of Russian attitudes. The entire Russian invasion has been described by some analysts as “reckless” and further lack of care could spell disaster for the country and all of Europe.
Dissent in Russia had been on the rise before Moscow took action. Russia has now banned reports that refer to the military action as a “war.” Thousands of arrests have been made as Putin looks to extinguish any dissent as quickly as possible. Russian leadership appears ready and willing to continue its invasion despite the risks which may be increasing by the day.
Russia is already suffering from sanctions not levied against a country before. Further steps may be necessary, however, to change Russian thinking. Those steps could include sanctions against Russian oil and natural gas-two areas untouched by sanctions thus far. Whatever the case may be, the West may continue its current path of attempting to squeeze Russia economically before any military action is even considered.
The gold market will likely remain on the offensive as long as the fighting continues. Now approaching the $2000 per ounce level, the gold bulls may see new all-time highs in the weeks ahead. A stop to the fighting or reversal in Russian thinking, however, could cause a sudden and significant decline in gold. Any decline seen in the yellow metal may be met with aggressive buying, however, as there are numerous other reasons to be long the metal. Hot inflation, lower stocks and uncertainty over geopolitics may all keep gold on the ascent in the months to come. The bulls’ next target is a close above the February highs around $1976. The bears will look for a decline in price to below the $1850 level.