The week ahead for gold may be an exciting one. Although the yellow metal is lower on Monday to begin the new trading week, numerous potential issues could drive the metal higher, and do so in a hurry. Following the recent run higher that gold has already seen, some pullback and consolidation are not only to be expected but are also healthy for the market. The geopolitical uncertainty being seen all over the globe right now has put gold into a short squeeze, as hedge funds and large market participants exit short positions with some even deciding to get long once again.
The gold market is just below the key $2,000 level. Trading at $1,997 in early afternoon action Monday, the yellow metal may need to retake the $2,000 level in the next day or two or risk vulnerability to more downside pressure. A solid close above this level may set the stage for a bullish rally, as more momentum players may view it as a sign of strength and look to avoid missing the bandwagon. Whatever the case may be, the $2,000 area is of critical importance to the market and will need to be dealt with sooner rather than later.
The ongoing war in Israel between Israel and Hamas may keep the market inundated with flight to safety buying interest. Just a few weeks old at this point, the war has already claimed thousands of lives and could enter a phase of increasing death and violence. The ground invasion of Gaza is of critical importance, as this area is home to many civilians and non-combatants. These people have had their internet and power cut already, and could soon run out of other key supplies needed for survival. In addition to the war in Israel, the war between Russia and Ukraine also rages on. This conflict is looking more and more like it could eventually turn into a nuclear conflict. How this could affect the U.S. and other nations is unknown, but the threat of nuclear arms being used may also keep buyers looking to gold for its perceived safety.
The price of gold hit a three-month high on Friday. The bulls have retaken control of the metal on the daily chart, on which a fresh four-week-old uptrend now exists. To keep this recent bullish momentum going, however, the bulls will need to take out the $2,000 level in a convincing fashion. A solid close above this area or several consecutive closes above it will be needed to attract fresh buyers into the market. If the bulls fail to do so and this level holds as resistance, the bears may find themselves able to turn the market lower again. The next several sessions may be very telling, therefore, as they could decide gold’s fortunes for the next several weeks or months.